Pdf the threat of nuclear proliferation in east asia. Proliferation and security issues congressional research service summary pakistans nuclear arsenal probably consists of approximately 90110 nuclear warheads, although it could be larger. While claiming to be protecting the world from proliferation threats in iraq, libya, iran and north korea they also have abandoned past pledges and now threaten first use of nuclear weapons against non. The united states should promote greater consultation and coordination between south korea and japan by encouraging them to. Nuclear proliferation in south asia coral bell school of asia pacific. In the case of south asia, the course of us policy is still evolving both in nature and scope. The committee on north korea nuclear proliferation was called to action because of the recent north korean nuclear attack on south korea.
Nuclear weapons proliferation and conflict in south asia. The emergence and consequences of nuclear weapons in south asia can only be understood in the context of a history of hos tility punctuated by war. If detonated, these weapons would cause the equivalent of about 150,00 hiroshima bombs. This report, the ninth to be submitted pursuant to section 620fc of the foreign assistance act of 1961, as amended, provides an update on nonproliferation efforts in south asia, including efforts taken by the united states to achieve a regional agreement on nuclear nonproliferation, and a comprehensive list of the obstacles to concluding such an agreement. The spread of nuclear weapons to south asia offers an opportunity to investigate this crucial question. Kim jongun seems prepared to tolerate a minimum of entrepreneurial activity even in the cities, where managers are reported to now have some degree. House of repre sentatives encourages steps to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to the. Imposition of sanctions was followed by the american demand from the two countries to sign npt and ctbt. New study examines nuclear weapons proliferation in south asia. An assessment on major solutions from both a realist and liberal perspective as defined by christoph bluth from the political studies association, the proliferation of nuclear weapons is widely perceived by political leaders as one of the major problems of global security in the. If south korea were to arm itself with nuclear weapons, china would likely protest and probably take the matter to the united nations as a violation of.
The us has so far refused to acknowledge the nuclear weapons status of india and pakistan and has imposed sanctions after the tests in 1998. Most argue that nuclear proliferation will destabilize the world and increase the risk of nuclear war. About the authors michael krepon is founding president of the henry l. Nuclear weapons and nuclear war in south asia brookings. The decision to test may also have dealt a death blow to the americanled process of containing proliferation by a strategy of treaty adherence. Nuclear proliferation is the spread of nuclear weapons, fissionable material, and weaponsapplicable nuclear technology and information to nations not recognized as nuclear weapon states by the treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the nonproliferation treaty or npt. It reflects upon the key factors that contributed to, and the process that prompted india and pakistans nuclear programmes to take a military orientation, which eventually culminated in the may 1998. A proliferation security initiative, announced by president bush on may 31, 2003, is an agreement between 11. The nuclear dimension of the crisis in the korean peninsula has been compounded since the end of the cold war, particularly since the north korean regime announced its withdrawal from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty npt in january 2003. There are an estimated 23,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, 22,000 of them belonging to the united states and russia. Wishing for a good outcome to the inevitable indiapakistan nuclear arms race complicated by chinas role as a rival to india and a supplier to pakistanis not. The proliferation of nuclear technology in south asia the south asian region was hard hit by all the above identified means of proliferation. Southern asias nuclear powers council on foreign relations.
Adhikari abstract south asia is gradually heading towards a shortfall of water, which is being exacerbated by growing population, industrialisation, mismanagement, and lack of. The stimson centers krepon adds, pakistan is a disadvantaged state that. Islamabad is producing fissile material, adding to related production facilities, and deploying additional delivery vehicles. Comprehending the politics of proliferation is crucial for devising policy measures to curb the further spread of nuclear weapons. Writing in the india daily the telegraph, kanwal sibal, a former foreign secretary of india and a member of ewis board of directors, urges the united states to oppose chinapakistan nuclear cooperation sibal suggests that the chinas recent decision to sell two nuclear power reactors to pakistan threatens nuclear nonproliferation agreements. Elbaradei met with japanese governmental and industry representatives, and spoke at an event. The npt centric international nuclear order is based on legal, technical, political and normative pillars that have proven to be partially successful in achieving nuclear nonproliferation goals. The united states must realize that, over time, proliferation will probably occur in an even wider group of nations. Perfect for students examining south asia or aspects of nuclear proliferation. Nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction act, 1993. In this context, the ctbt remains an essential component of the global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation regime. Optimistic scholars argue that by threatening to raise the cost of war astronomically, nuclear weapons make armed conflict in south asia extremely unlikely. The first nuclear learning coursenuclear south asia.
A chronology of south africas nuclear program, by masiza, fall 1993. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of non. Conflict and cooperation on south asian water resources. Managing proliferation in south asia james martin center. The north claimed that over the past few years, south korean sailors and fishermen have encroached on their waters, thus destroying their fishing industry. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of nonproliferation 4 the united state is the major culprit in the erosion of the npt. It has repeatedly proposed a nuclear free zone in south asia and has proclaimed its willingness to engage in nuclear disarmament and to sign the nonproliferation treaty if india would do so.
This forced pakistan to work seriously on its nuclear program with a fast pace. The politics of south asias nuclear crisis program on science and. The author succiently 204 pages uses the ongoing indopakistani conflict as a study to compare and evaluate deterrence theory and nonproliferation theory. Nuclear verification in south africa, by baeckmann, dillon, and perricos, january 1995. Nuclearization of south asia has put forwarded three major challenges that are. The effect of nuclear weapons on the behaviour of newly nuclear states, and the potential for future international crises, are of particular concern. Encourage reconciliation between south korea and japan. Nuclear strategy and regional stability in southern asia. Nuke proliferation in east asia affects international security. As a region of burgeoning economic and political importance, south asia offers a crucial test of proliferations effects on.
Implications for seoul and washington 22804331 9788893680370 harvests. South asia at the nuclear crossroads, a new study sponsored in part by the joan b. Deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia. The nuclear and ballistic programmes of the democratic peoples republic of korea dprk have dangerously improved since the beginning of the decade. Nuclear proliferation in north east asia think tank. Kroc institute for international peace studies at the university of notre dame, examines the threat posed by nuclear weapons proliferation in south asia. His newest books are cooperative threat reduction, missile defense, and the nuclear future palgrave macmillan, 2003, and. Hagerty also adepty explaines the major focal points for this crisis. This book analyses india and pakistans decision to go nuclear against the odds of nuclear nonproliferation treatybased nuclear order. It has endorsed a united states proposal for a regional five power conference to consider nonproliferation in south asia. Nuclear power is not the only answer but looks to be an important part of the future energy mix in asia and other parts of the world, iaea director general mohamed elbaradei said this week in tokyo.
These rivalries raise the risk that a nuclear weapon might be used in a deliberate attack, and the consequences of a regional nuclear exchange would reverberate across the globe. Cohensouth asia nuclear futures2nicola machiavelli, kautilyas western counterpart, noted that luck or fortune played a greater role in the course of politics than any other factor. Addressing nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Nuclear power, nonproliferation focus in asia iaea. Does the proliferation of nuclear weapons cause ongoing conflicts to diminish or to intensify. On 9 march 2015, vcdnp hosted a seminar by mark fitzpatrick, director of the nonproliferation and disarmament programme at the international institute for strategic studies in london, who offered reflections on the security situation in south asia as it relates to the presence of nuclear weapons in the region. Rewards both in prestige and treasure accrue to nations with nuclear. Others counter that the threat of nuclear war is enough to convince new nuclear nations to adopt prudent security policies. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the military consequences of a u. The consequences of nuclear proliferation the mit press. Nuclear nonproliferation within the international arena. Proliferation has been opposed by many nations with and without nuclear weapons, as. In the post world war ii era, us was no longer able to enjoy the status of sole nuclear power in the world when in 1949 the soviets claimed to have this capability. Nuclear proliferation remains one of the most pressing and important issues in international politics and security.
Conflict and cooperation on south asian water resources 45 conflict and cooperation on south asian water resources k. Nuclear proliferation has long been recognized as a severe threat to the world. Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and. Nuclear proliferation in south asia asian security. Strategic dynamics and nuclear weapons proliferation in. Nuclear proliferation in south asia is in part a consequence of the security dilemma existing in the subcontinent. For example, president kennedys prediction that the world could see 15 to 25 new nuclear states by the 1970s has not yet come to pass. Chinas implementation of nonproliferation controls has been subject to intense and ongoing criticism from the west since the 1970s. Such competing security agendas ensure that nuclear modernization, through production of fissile material and development of more effective delivery.
He is coeditor of crisis prevention, confidence building, and reconciliation in south asia 1995, and global confidencebuilding. The nuclearweapon states recognized under the nuclear nonproliferation treaty the united states 1945. Analysts of international politics have debated heatedly over the likely consequences of the spread of nuclear weapons. At large, proliferation dynamics in south asia are driven by a need to establish some measure of relative parity against their principal adversariesindia against china and pakistan against india. Nuclear testing and the south asia arms race the diplomat. Nuclear proliferation pdf carnegie council for ethics in.
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